Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 20 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 40527 (+1590) 763594 (+26210) 70938 (+3500) 652129 (+21120)
Italy 23660 (+433) 178972 (+3047) 47055 (+2128) 108257 (+486)
Spain 20453 (+0) 198674 (+4258) 77357 (+2560) 100864 (+1698)
France 19718 (+395) 152894 (+1101) 36578 (+595) 96598 (+111)
United Kingdom 16060 (+596) 120067 (+5850) 0 (+0) 104007 (+5254)
Belgium 5683 (+230) 38496 (+1313) 8757 (+409) 24056 (+674)
Iran 5118 (+87) 82211 (+1343) 57023 (+1036) 20070 (+220)
China 4632 (+0) 82735 (+16) 77062 (+33) 1041 (-17)
Germany 4586 (+109) 145184 (+1709) 88000 (+2600) 52598 (-1000)
Netherlands 3684 (+83) 32655 (+1066) 250 (+0) 28721 (+983)
Brazil 2462 (+101) 38654 (+1932) 22130 (+8104) 14062 (-6273)
Turkey 2017 (+127) 86306 (+3977) 11976 (+1523) 72313 (+2327)
Canada 1587 (+117) 35056 (+1673) 11843 (+636) 21626 (+920)
Sweden 1540 (+29) 14385 (+563) 550 (+0) 12295 (+534)
Switzerland 1393 (+25) 27740 (+336) 17800 (+700) 8547 (-389)
Portugal 714 (+27) 20206 (+521) 610 (+0) 18882 (+494)
Mexico 650 (+104) 7497 (+622) 2627 (+502) 4220 (+16)
Ireland 610 (+39) 15251 (+493) 77 (+0) 14564 (+454)
Indonesia 582 (+47) 6575 (+327) 686 (+55) 5307 (+225)
India 559 (+38) 17615 (+1893) 2854 (+391) 14202 (+1464)
Ecuador 474 (+18) 9468 (+446) 1061 (+53) 7933 (+375)
Austria 452 (+9) 14749 (+78) 10501 (+287) 3796 (-218)
Romania 451 (+30) 8746 (+328) 1892 (+162) 6403 (+136)
Philippines 409 (+12) 6259 (+172) 572 (+56) 5278 (+104)
Peru 400 (+52) 15628 (+1208) 6811 (+127) 8417 (+1029)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 160293 (+4633) 2322131 (+76452) 547442 (+29292)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 163448 ( +5085) 2305003 ( +46702) 563474 ( +23376)
Tue 21 April 2020 168143 ( +4695) 2347295 ( +42292) 585433 ( +21959)
Wed 22 April 2020 172451 ( +4308) 2385427 ( +38132) 605896 ( +20463)
Thu 23 April 2020 176381 ( +3930) 2419673 ( +34246) 624823 ( +18927)
Fri 24 April 2020 179946 ( +3566) 2450321 ( +30648) 642210 ( +17386)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82735 (+16) 77062 (+33)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 3396 ( +0) 81326 ( +0) 76607 ( +10)
Tue 21 April 2020 3396 ( +0) 81326 ( +0) 76616 ( +9)
Wed 22 April 2020 3396 ( +0) 81326 ( +0) 76624 ( +8)
Thu 23 April 2020 3396 ( +0) 81326 ( +0) 76630 ( +7)
Fri 24 April 2020 3396 ( +0) 81326 ( +0) 76636 ( +6)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 20453 (+0) 198674 (+4258) 77357 (+2560)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 19981 ( +157) 189450 ( +1273) 77679 ( +1005)
Tue 21 April 2020 20113 ( +133) 190538 ( +1088) 78523 ( +843)
Wed 22 April 2020 20225 ( +112) 191467 ( +929) 79228 ( +705)
Thu 23 April 2020 20319 ( +94) 192258 ( +791) 79815 ( +588)
Fri 24 April 2020 20398 ( +79) 192931 ( +673) 80304 ( +488)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 23660 (+433) 178972 (+3047) 47055 (+2128)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 22795 ( +185) 171617 ( +1115) 46807 ( +1363)
Tue 21 April 2020 22958 ( +162) 172605 ( +987) 48095 ( +1288)
Wed 22 April 2020 23100 ( +142) 173478 ( +873) 49307 ( +1212)
Thu 23 April 2020 23225 ( +125) 174248 ( +771) 50443 ( +1136)
Fri 24 April 2020 23334 ( +109) 174928 ( +680) 51503 ( +1060)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 16060 (+596) 120067 (+5850) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 16166 ( +452) 120247 ( +3344) 134 ( +3)
Tue 21 April 2020 16555 ( +389) 123254 ( +3007) 137 ( +3)
Wed 22 April 2020 16888 ( +333) 125940 ( +2686) 139 ( +3)
Thu 23 April 2020 17170 ( +282) 128326 ( +2386) 142 ( +3)
Fri 24 April 2020 17409 ( +238) 130433 ( +2107) 145 ( +3)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 40527 (+1590) 763594 (+26210) 70938 (+3500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 43307 ( +2387) 755124 ( +15271) 78117 ( +6324)
Tue 21 April 2020 45547 ( +2240) 768511 ( +13387) 84545 ( +6429)
Wed 22 April 2020 47622 ( +2076) 780184 ( +11673) 91010 ( +6465)
Thu 23 April 2020 49525 ( +1902) 790315 ( +10131) 97442 ( +6432)
Fri 24 April 2020 51250 ( +1725) 799073 ( +8757) 103772 ( +6330)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 19718 (+395) 152894 (+1101) 36578 (+595)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 19715 ( +366) 156679 ( +1662) 45712 ( +3481)
Tue 21 April 2020 20028 ( +313) 158096 ( +1417) 49481 ( +3768)
Wed 22 April 2020 20294 ( +265) 159301 ( +1205) 53560 ( +4079)
Thu 23 April 2020 20518 ( +224) 160322 ( +1022) 57975 ( +4415)
Fri 24 April 2020 20707 ( +189) 161187 ( +864) 62754 ( +4779)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 4586 (+109) 145184 (+1709) 88000 (+2600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 4661 ( +129) 141850 ( +885) 88878 ( +2213)
Tue 21 April 2020 4774 ( +113) 142605 ( +755) 90796 ( +1918)
Wed 22 April 2020 4874 ( +99) 143249 ( +644) 92447 ( +1651)
Thu 23 April 2020 4960 ( +86) 143796 ( +548) 93860 ( +1413)
Fri 24 April 2020 5034 ( +74) 144262 ( +465) 95062 ( +1202)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 3684 (+83) 32655 (+1066) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 3594 ( +58) 31862 ( +528) 250 ( +0)
Tue 21 April 2020 3644 ( +50) 32336 ( +474) 250 ( +0)
Wed 22 April 2020 3688 ( +43) 32761 ( +424) 250 ( +0)
Thu 23 April 2020 3725 ( +37) 33139 ( +379) 250 ( +0)
Fri 24 April 2020 3757 ( +32) 33476 ( +337) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 5683 (+230) 38496 (+1313) 8757 (+409)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 5841 ( +205) 37877 ( +671) 8530 ( +165)
Tue 21 April 2020 6022 ( +181) 38473 ( +596) 8673 ( +142)
Wed 22 April 2020 6179 ( +157) 39001 ( +528) 8795 ( +122)
Thu 23 April 2020 6315 ( +136) 39466 ( +465) 8899 ( +104)
Fri 24 April 2020 6432 ( +117) 39874 ( +408) 8987 ( +88)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 1540 (+29) 14385 (+563) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 1592 ( +64) 14499 ( +415) 573 ( +17)
Tue 21 April 2020 1649 ( +58) 14890 ( +391) 588 ( +15)
Wed 22 April 2020 1701 ( +52) 15256 ( +366) 601 ( +13)
Thu 23 April 2020 1747 ( +46) 15597 ( +341) 612 ( +11)
Fri 24 April 2020 1788 ( +41) 15914 ( +317) 622 ( +9)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 360 (+13) 9287 (+545) 1040 (+59)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 370 ( +12) 9074 ( +210) 1130 ( +83)
Tue 21 April 2020 381 ( +11) 9262 ( +188) 1206 ( +76)
Wed 22 April 2020 390 ( +9) 9430 ( +168) 1276 ( +69)
Thu 23 April 2020 398 ( +8) 9578 ( +149) 1337 ( +61)
Fri 24 April 2020 404 ( +7) 9710 ( +131) 1391 ( +54)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 1393 (+25) 27740 (+336) 17800 (+700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 1377 ( +19) 26918 ( +97) 17257 ( +250)
Tue 21 April 2020 1394 ( +17) 27001 ( +82) 17461 ( +204)
Wed 22 April 2020 1408 ( +14) 27071 ( +70) 17627 ( +166)
Thu 23 April 2020 1421 ( +12) 27130 ( +59) 17761 ( +134)
Fri 24 April 2020 1431 ( +10) 27179 ( +50) 17869 ( +108)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 19 April 2020 5118 (+87) 82211 (+1343) 57023 (+1036)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 4999 ( +42) 82746 ( +972) 69462 ( +4982)
Tue 21 April 2020 5037 ( +38) 83632 ( +886) 74829 ( +5367)
Wed 22 April 2020 5071 ( +34) 84439 ( +806) 80611 ( +5782)
Thu 23 April 2020 5102 ( +30) 85171 ( +732) 86840 ( +6229)
Fri 24 April 2020 5129 ( +27) 85834 ( +664) 93551 ( +6710)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.